2016 Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight

Chance of winning

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

78.5%

Donald Trump

21.4%

FiveThirtyEight
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Key

50%

60

70

80

90

Clinton

Trump

Tipping points

Electoral votes

Electoral votes

Hillary Clinton

Clinton

318.9

Donald Trump

Trump

217.9

Evan McMullin

McMullin

1.2

Gary Johnson

Johnson

0.1

Popular vote

Hillary Clinton

Clinton

49.4%

Donald Trump

Trump

44.2%

Gary Johnson

Johnson

4.8%

Other

Other

1.6%

# How the forecast has changed

We'll be updating our forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov. 8.

# Who’s ahead in each state and by how much

Our win probabilities come from simulating the election 10,000 times, which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each state. Here are the expected margins of victory. The closer the dot is to the center line, the tighter the race. And the wider the bar, the less certain the model is about the outcome.

Key

Average

80% chance outcome falls in this range

Show all states

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# It’s all about the 538 Electoral College votes

Here's a map of the country, with each state sized by its number of electoral votes and shaded by the leading candidate's chance of winning it.

Key

50%

60

70

80

90

Clinton's chances

Trump's chances

One electoral vote

# The winding path to 270 electoral votes

A candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to clinch the White House. Here's where the race stands, with the states ordered by the projected margin between the candidates — Clinton’s strongest states are farthest left, Trump’s farthest right — and sized by the number of electoral votes they will award.

A candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to clinch the White House. Here's where the race stands, with the states ordered by the projected margin between the candidates — Clinton’s strongest states are at the top, Trump’s at the bottom — and sized by the number of electoral votes they will award.

Key

One electoral vote

# How much each state matters

Two measures help capture how important a state and its voters will be in determining the next president: “Tipping-point chance” is the probability that a state will provide the decisive vote in the Electoral College. “Voter power index” is the relative likelihood that an individual voter in a state will determine the Electoral College winner.

Tipping-point chance

Florida

15.1%

Pennsylvania

11.2%

Michigan

10.8%

North Carolina

9.2%

Colorado

7.1%

Wisconsin

7.0%

Ohio

5.5%

Virginia

5.1%

Minnesota

4.8%

Nevada

3.7%

Arizona

3.1%

New Hampshire

3.1%

Georgia

2.3%

Iowa

2.1%

Oregon

1.4%

New Mexico

1.2%

Maine - statewide

0.9%

South Carolina

0.7%

Connecticut

0.6%

Texas

0.5%

New Jersey

0.5%

Rhode Island

0.5%

Kansas

0.4%

Maine 1st District

0.3%

Alaska

0.3%

Washington

0.3%

Maine 2nd District

0.3%

Mississippi

0.2%

Delaware

0.2%

Illinois

0.2%

Missouri

0.2%

Nebraska 1st District

0.1%

Nebraska 2nd District

0.1%

Hawaii

0.1%

Utah

<0.1%

Indiana

<0.1%

Montana

<0.1%

Tennessee

<0.1%

South Dakota

<0.1%

Louisiana

<0.1%

Kentucky

<0.1%

Arkansas

<0.1%

North Dakota

<0.1%

Nebraska - statewide

<0.1%

Idaho

<0.1%

Alabama

<0.1%

New York

<0.1%

Oklahoma

<0.1%

California

<0.1%

Massachusetts

<0.1%

West Virginia

<0.1%

Vermont

<0.1%

Maryland

<0.1%

Wyoming

<0.1%

Nebraska 3rd District

<0.1%

District of Columbia

<0.1%

Voter power index

New Hampshire

5.7

Nevada

4.6

Colorado

3.4

Wisconsin

3.0

Michigan

3.0

North Carolina

2.6

Pennsylvania

2.6

Florida

2.2

New Mexico

2.1

Minnesota

2.1

Iowa

1.8

Virginia

1.7

Arizona

1.7

Maine - statewide

1.6

Alaska

1.4

Rhode Island

1.4

Ohio

1.3

Maine 1st District

1.2

Maine 2nd District

1.1

Oregon

1.0

Georgia

0.8

Nebraska 1st District

0.7

Nebraska 2nd District

0.7

Delaware

0.7

Connecticut

0.5

Kansas

0.5

South Carolina

0.4

Hawaii

0.4

North Dakota

0.3

Mississippi

0.3

Vermont

0.3

Montana

0.2

New Jersey

0.2

Washington

0.1

Missouri

<0.1

Texas

<0.1

Illinois

<0.1

Kentucky

<0.1

Indiana

<0.1

Alabama

<0.1

Utah

<0.1

South Dakota

<0.1

Louisiana

<0.1

Idaho

<0.1

New York

<0.1

California

<0.1

Tennessee

<0.1

Arkansas

<0.1

Nebraska - statewide

<0.1

Oklahoma

<0.1

Massachusetts

<0.1

West Virginia

<0.1

Maryland

<0.1

Wyoming

<0.1

Nebraska 3rd District

<0.1

District of Columbia

<0.1
Show all states

# What to expect from the Electoral College

In each of our simulations, we forecast the states and note the number of electoral votes each candidate wins. That gives us a distribution for each candidate, where the tallest bar is the outcome that occurred most frequently.

Swipe for state forecasts →

# Who’s winning the popular vote

Our model produces a distribution of outcomes for the national popular vote. The curves will get narrower as the election gets closer and our forecasts become more confident.

Key

Average

test

80% chance outcome falls in this range

# Crazy and not-so-crazy scenarios

Here are the chances we’ll see these election outcomes.

Electoral College deadlock no candidate gets 270 electoral votes0.9%
Electoral College 269-269 tie0.4%
Recount at least one decisive state within 0.5 ppt6.2%
Clinton wins popular vote87.1%
Trump wins popular vote12.9%
Clinton wins popular vote but loses Electoral College8.8%
Trump wins popular vote but loses Electoral College0.2%
Johnson wins at least one electoral vote0.4%
McMullin wins at least one electoral vote19.2%
Clinton majority wins at least 50 percent of the vote41.7%
Trump majority wins at least 50 percent of the vote2.0%
Clinton landslide double-digit popular vote margin14.1%
Trump landslide double-digit popular vote margin0.3%
Map exactly the same as in 20120.1%
Clinton wins at least one state Mitt Romney won in 201279.6%
Trump wins at least one state President Obama won in 201275.1%

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …


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